The Conditioned-"Yes" Day

Today, Romania and Bulgaria find out whether Europe gives them a clear answer or whether it has another surprise in store for them, which would keep them guessing the date of the adherence. Even though, on the whole, the both Governments have found out the things they should be expecting, the final decision of the European Commission could mean a total turnover.

It is regarded as a crucial report that will take the final decision on the adherence issue in the cases of Romania and Bulgaria. Now, there are more and more sources saying the monitoring report that the European Commission will make public today will be no more than another "checkpoint" in the Romanian and Bulgarian European race. A point in which the two countries are thoroughly checked and after which they are allowed to continue. Getting on to a sidetrack or going around landmarks could mean pulling over, and the greatest risk is for the entire race to end in 2008.

MINIMUM RISK. Romania has a minimum risk to miss the targeted adherence date, January 1st 2007, at present. According to the report’s project, its homework is satisfactory as far as the points that could have meant the delay are concerned. Moreover, its efforts have been welcomed by good references in Brussels as well as in other European capitals. The European press articles in the week before the publishing of the monitoring report of the European Commission prove this. Like never before, Romania is not the one criticized. International Herald Tribune, The Guardian, Financial Times or Le Monde have changed the registry and they published analyses that target mainly the corruption in Bulgaria, the difficulties in the administration of the border with Turkey and the insufficient reforms of the justice.

NO ONE KNOWS. Theoretically, the Romanian authorities shouldn’t expect any great surprises from the European Commission. The Chief of the European Executive, Jose Manuel Baroso, has already let it fall that the report will mean a conditioned "yes" to the adherence of the two countries on the 1st of January 2007. The conditions regard the areas where the efforts must continue under a sustained rhythm in order for the countries to be able to join the Union. The Justice reform, the fight against corruption will represent the main issues. There will be recommendations for the fields where there still are problems. There are four such fields for Romania (the payment agencies for agriculture, the animals’ registering principle, the tax collecting system for agriculture, the facilities for the gathering and treating of the animal products) and six fields for Bulgaria.

SURPRISES. Despite these so-called certainties, the European Commission has proved recently that it is capable of surprises and "innovations". For example, it did so in the case of the report in the fall of 2004, when the Romanians fell over backwards to translate the statement in which the experts of the commission where saying that Romania has a functional market economy. Another innovation was the convention between the Commission and the European Parliament, according to which the EU Legislative requested and received the right to take part in the decision regarding the two countries’ adherence. Today’s report is an innovation itself. The standard procedure of the Union says there has to be a report once every year in October. Theoretically, the decisive report for Romania should be the one in October 2005. However, the Europeans said it would have been too soon to say who was ready to join the Union. Therefore, this intermediary report has been "invented", which is not normal for the Commission. Now, they say this report will not be the decisive one either. It seems quite normal for the European experts to find an enunciation to bring a lot of restlessness in Bucharest and Sofia. By saying "January 1st, if …", the EU Executive dribbles off the responsibility and the pressure of a firm recommendation regarding the postponing of the adherence for one year. Today’s recommendation of the Commission is important, but the final decision is in the hands of the leaders of the 25 member states. According to BBC Romania, their decision might not be taken during the reunion on the 15th and 16th of June, but during a summit that is to take place in October in Finland.

THE SECTOR CLAUSES. In order to be sure that Romania joins the EU with all the homework done, the European Commission elaborated three "sector clauses". Romania’s adherence to the EU is fully related to the 100% alignment to the European standards through these measures. Therefore, Romania will not integrate fiscally in the Union until its computerized systems for tax collecting will be operational and ready to interconnect. The Commission can postpone the abolition of the fiscal borders with Romania for three years at most. If applying the justice reform isn’t going as it should, the Commission can activate a three-year long monitoring system, with annual reports for the status of these reforms. If the results are not satisfactory, the decision of the Romanian Courts of Law won’t be valid in the countries of the Union. The European funds and their allocation is another chapter that comes with penalties from Brussels, in case the countries lack in results. If Romania doesn’t show enough proofs and guarantees that the European money are administered and allocated correctly, the Union will stop the financing until it will be sure the situation got better. The activation of such a clause seems very possible at present. "There is no payment agency for the farmers in Romania. If this situation doesn’t get better, the Commission could stop the payments to Romania", Oli Rehn (photo), the commissar for extension, says.

BULGARIAN PLEA. The authorities in Sofia are more nervous about the conclusions of the monitoring report. The Bulgarian officials, led by PM Serghei Stanislev, launched a series of statements saying that Bulgaria’s adherence mustn’t be postponed. A negative decision for Bulgaria will result into the people’s frustration and into the increase in the influence of the right extremists.

"A postponement would be seen as rejection and the psychological effect would be negative. We have been through huge transformations, which many of the old members of the Union wouldn’t have been able to do in 15 years. Let us be happy for the adherence. Don’t make us feel like second-hand Europeans. We are not second-hand Europeans, don’t try to humiliate us!, PM Stanislev states.

AN ERROR. Te postponement by one year of Romania’s adherence would be a political error, according to the President of the Belgian Commission for External Affairs of the Senate. Francois Roelants du Vivier stated for Jurnalul National that one more year wouldn’t mean much of a change. "No one is interested in the postponement. I prefer keeping the initial target, 2007, but to allow a longer period for the transition in certain areas. For example, two or three more years for the justice reform. Postponing the adherence would be a mistake, or even a psychological hit for Romania", the Belgian official said. However, he emphasized that, in spite of the support Romania has from Belgium, his country is only one of the 25 members. "The European Commission has the freedom of saying we should wait a little more with the integration, but a unanimous decision of the members states is required", Francois Roelants du Vivier stated. He even recommended a solution to the Romanians, in order for them to understand the advantages and disadvantages of the European Union: "Visit Spain, Portugal and you will see the meaning of the adherence to the EU. The extension of the structure is imminent. In the case of Romania, the amelioration will be observed after 10, 15, 20 years. Not all at once, but the small things will make the Romanians feel Europeans from the very beginning. (Andrei Ando, Brussels)