A Minority Government Unlikely to Survive

The parliamentary elections of 28 November show the 451 mandates went to the following: 159 to the Social Democrat Party; 30 to the Romanian Humanist Party, 161 to the National Liberal & Democrat parties’ alliance, 69 to the Greater Romania Party, and 32 to the Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania.

Thus, from the 314 seats in the House of Deputies, 113 went to the SDP, 19 to the RHP, 112 to the NLP-DP alliance, 48 to the GRP, and 22 to the DUHR. To these, another 18 seats go to the 18 minorities represented in the lower house. While of the 137 seats in the Senate, 46 went to the SDP, 11 to the RHP, 49 to the NLP-DP alliance, 21 to the GRP, and 10 to the DUHR.

Math shows that the NLP-DP alliance plus the DUHP make together 193 seats, and if the group of 18 deputies representing the minorities will decide to join them, then the top figure will stay at 211 seats. But Constitutional provisions are for a government to get 235 of the votes in order to take office.

Hence, the previous described make-up of a minority government headed by Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, of the NLP, is not likely to get parliamentary approval. If the government will fail to pass the 235-vote threshold within 60 days from the first nomination of person for the PM job, then early elections will be called.

As President of Romania, it is unlikely to see Traian Basescu garnering the support of the electorate in order to get a comfortable majority, with deploying the same tactics he successfully used this spring, when he asked the Bucharest dwellers to give him both the City Hall and the majority in the local council, which they did.