Geoana vs. Oprescu, All or Nothing

According to the official announcements made by now, there will be three candidates for the SDP presidency. Taking into account the present situation of the former governing party, only two of them will fight for the votes of the upcoming congress. Antonie Iorgovan doesn’t have any support or leader calling despite his appetite for direct confrontations. Geoana or Oprescu? If Ion Iliescu doesn’t change his mind in the last minute (which I doubt he will because Oprescu is quite close to him), this is the question that the SDP delegates have to ask themselves. Who will they choose? The answer depends on the SDP members’ consciousness, on the backstage tricks and on the commission for the votes’ counting. They both have good parts and bad parts. Let’s try a comparative analysis of the two.

The main advantages of Geoana are the fact that he is the current president, the notorious support of the professional wire pullers (Mitrea, Rus, Hrebenciuc…), the ones that have actually brought him in his current position. Moreover, after having helped the current power and got sure of multiple penal immunities, they are the ones able to operate the financial faucets necessary for such a party in order to force a comeback. The fact that Marian Vanghelie (the former deputy of Sorin Oprescu in Bucharest) joined his group is a hard hit for the former active Manager of the University Hospital. The downsize of Mircea Geoana is represented by the disastrous results of the party during the period since he took over. The polls, no matter the persons who had ordered them, confirm it. Some other disadvantages would be the notorious complicities with the President (to whom he delivered the perfect man for the SRI leading chair, the same President that has already crushed in the local elections and to whom he would be the perfect candidate for the next presidential elections), the precious language (that doesn’t match the preferences of the SDP faithful electorate), the lack of charisma, the image of a technocrat that has just got on the sidewalks directly from business class.

Oprescu is the only SDP member that has defeated the orange tide in the past two years (and I think this is the base of his candidacy). The humiliation he administered to the orange accountant Nicolaescu in the fight for the takeover of the Municipal Hospital and the serious shaking of the Government have transformed him into the main remonstrant of the present regime with important results. His seniority in the party and the loyalty for the cause, as well as the rough style, which the SDP electorate likes are also very important for this fight. In the same time, an eventual official support from Ion Iliescu (whom he had never betrayed), as well as the supposed support from Adrian Nastase’s supporters (as few as they are) would balance a little more the balance. It is obvious that if he doesn’t have the votes of the usual vote dealers, the doctor has an important disadvantage in the fight for the party’s presidency.

The greatest burden for the both candidates, especially for the present leader of the party, is the fact that they are seen as losers. Geaona got knocked down by Basescu during the elections for the Bucharest City Hall, and Oprescu, even though he is the only SDP member in the history that almost got a hand on the Bucharest Mayor chair, lost the battle to Lis and to the present President. This is why, beyond the stake brought by the title of leader of the Opposition, the Geoana vs. Oprescu match means all or nothing...