A minority government supported tacitly in the Parliament until January 2007, which would lead by emergency decree in order not to risk anything in the Parliament. This is one of the possible options if the Conservatory Party gets out of the Government.
The National Council of the Conservatory Party is to decide on Sunday whether it gets out of the Government or not. The decision will be taken after the discussion with the subsidiaries in the country and by a thorough investigation of the collaboration of all the other parties in the Government. The possible withdrawal of CP will mean the end of the current governmental coalition, which allowed the J.T. Alliance to become the Power in December 2004, even though they hadnât won the Parliamentary elections.
The breaking of the coalition due to the possible passing of the CP in the Opposition will question the support for the Tariceanu Government in the Parliament. Therefore, a formula that would exclude the before-term elections at least until next year has to be found.
BEFORE-TERM ELECTIONS
The before-term elections before January 2007 seem impossible because of several reasons. First, if we take into account the frictions between NLP (the National Liberal Party) and DP (the Democratic Party) one cannot tell whether they will take part in the electoral fight on separate lists. If they do it however, it will take them a lot of time to make the separate lists, and they will focus more on making the lists than on Governing. If they decide to go forward together, the electoral campaign will be the time and place for all the animosities in these 2 years of Governing to come out. We also have to take into account the fact that the last polls show that the people do not prefer any party and this would make it impossible for a party to govern by itself. Moreover, the Opposition has no interest in having before-term elections, since they are not ready for this. One other reason for which the current Government members cannot afford before-term elections is the Romanian adherence to the EU. We are expecting a new monitoring report of the EU commission in September-October, and the internal political stability is one of the main conditions for the continuation of the reforms. This is also the reason for which the European leaders didnât guarantee Romania a certain date for the adherence.
OPTIONS
However, there has to be an "average agreement" for the CP withdrawal: a minority Government supported tacitly in the Parliament by the Opposition until January 2007 that will lead by emergency decrees in order not to risk in the Parliament. This option tends to appear after the refusal of GRP (Great Romania Party) to join SDP (the Social Democratic Party) in a coalition to destroy the Tariceanu Government with the censorship motion called "500 Days of Governing". A NLP-GRP alliance would allow the liberals to fill the "blank" left by the CP in the Parliament as far as supporting the Tariceanu Government is concerned. The party led by C. V. Tudor has 50 members of the Parliament, 19 more than CP. NLP and GRP have already experimented at the election of Bogdan Olteanu as President of the Deputiesâ Chamber as well as last week when the two parties have voted together for the passing of the Commerce Registry to the Commerce and Industry Chambers.
THE OPPOSITION, NO INTEREST IN THE BEFORE-TERM ELECTIONS
"Several les-experienced newspapers have seen the postponement of the CP decision for the National Council as a sign of hesitation. They didnât take into account the obsession of Dan Voiculescu, who wants to prove that CP is a democratic party, but not a dictatorial party led by himself. They didnât take into account a strategy that any other party would have applied: the prolonging of the guessing period leads to a major media impact. Therefore, we can take into consideration that CP could decide to get out of the Government. Not necessarily for the satisfaction of Dan Voiculescu, but because CP could be the first passenger to see the iceberg at the horizon. If CP gets out, there wonât be any before-term elections, bur a minority Government tacitly supported by GRP, or by SDP, because one of the two parties of the Opposition will avoid responsibility. There is one bigger problem though: the battle for the places lefty behind by PC could lead to the definitive breaking of the Alliance", political analyst Ion Cristoiu said.
COMPUTATIONS REGARDING THE CP WITHDRAWAL
Therefore, in
case CP gets out of the Government, the parliamentary majority would mean a mixture of Power and Opposition: DP, NLP, DUHR, GRP and the minorities, which will have 188 members in the Parliament in the Deputiesâ Chamber, and 78 members in the Senate. On the other hand, the Opposition, represented by SDP and CP, would have 127 deputies and 55 senators. If GRP replaces SDP, in an alternative support for the minority Government, the situation is as follows: 262 deputies and 104 senators. 167 votes from the Chamber and 70 votes from the Senate are necessary for the enacting of an organic law. Therefore, in both cases, the Power would have the official support of the main laws in Parliament.
Translated by Sorin Balan
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