The Guts’ Strategy

Started on Thursday, the 29th of June 2006, the Calin Popescu Tariceanu-Basescu confrontation regarding our presence in Iraq has ended.

Like all the Romanians usually do, the journalists have formed two sides: the pro-Basescu side and the pro-Tariceanu side.

The passionate attention to the conflict has caused the absence of a clear radiography of the scandal.

This radiography is needed now more than ever.

Because, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict between the Palaces (last summer), Calin Popescu Tariceanu used the weapons of Traian Basescu.

The explanation.

In December 2004, before the second round of the Presidential elections, Traian Basescu went live on all the TV stations to announce the fraud regarding the elections and, therefore, to ask for the canceling of the first round of the parliamentary and presidential elections.

He made it up. However, the moment had its great importance for the strategy of a political battle.

We could call this the Guts’ Strategy: the conscious creation of a major crisis the consequences of which could be fatal for both the adversaries.

The other side, Adrian Nastase respectively, had two options: to go on with the crisis by asking for the canceling of the elections as well, or to sit back and strive to remain at the same level or even to try to make it seem smaller.

As a good strategist of the dangerous crises, Traian Basescu guessed Adrian Nastase would sit back. The victory was amazing. The electorate thought Adrian Nastase and SDP (the Social Democratic Party) didn’t go on because they had indeed falsified the elections.

If Adrian Nastase and SDP realized this was only a strategy and went on with the repeating of the elections, Traian Basescu would have met a very difficult situation. He knew the repeating of the elections would have meant a great loss. The electorate would have punished him greatly for his political irresponsibility.

The President used this same strategy in his conflict with the Government and with NLP.

For one year, he launched irresponsible challenges for the Government.

If the PM and the Government answered with the escalade of the crisis, the Alliance would have probably been the Opposition a long time ago.

However, Calin Popescu Tariceanu and NLP answered in the Romanian manner: wise men quit first.

As for the issue regarding our presence in Iraq, Calin Popescu Tariceanu and NLP have changed the strategy.

They have also used the Guts’ Strategy by starting a crisis that couldn’t have been solved without assuming several huge risks.

Traian Basescu had two options: to escalade the crisis, by calling the CSAT (the Supreme Council for the Country’s Defense) to discuss about the statement of Calin Popescu Tariceanu regarding the endangered national security or to sit back and ask DP to leave the Government.

Traian Basescu sat back. The press, influenced by Cotroceni irremediably, saw a victory in the words the President displayed for the media fair: anti-Romania putsch, irresponsibility, we need another PM.

Actually, Traian Basescu strived not to escalade the crisis. His reaction stopped at verbal attacks.

He only made his adversaries see he is all mouth and trousers.

If the PM and the liberals know how to draw the real conclusions, they will see they have found the weapon to destroy Traian Basescu. The President is much more afraid than he lets it fall. His legendary courage is no more than guts in front of a common-sensed adversary.

Translated by Sorin Balan