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The New Legislature - Scenarios for the Absolute Majority
GENERAL ELECTIONS - December 3rd 2004The National Union SDP (Social Democratic Party) - HPR (Humanist Party in Romania) and the J.T. (Justice and Truth) Alliance NLP (National liberal Party) - DP (Democrat Party) need more than just an alliance with DUHR (Democrat Union of the Hungarians in Romania) to have absolute majority in the Senate and in the Deputiesâ Chamber. The Union needs two more senators and 13 more deputies, while the Alliance needs 10 senators and 33 deputies, comments Mediafax. The absolute majority in the Deputiesâ Chamber means 167 votes and in the Senate it means 69 votes. This is necessary for the approval of the organic laws and for the Government supported by the parliamentary majority not to have problems at an eventual censorship motion. If, for the Deputiesâ Chamber, the Union SDP+HPR attract 13 of the 18 deputies of the national minorities, other than the Hungarians, on its side they, together with DUHR, can form the absolute majority of 167 deputies. The NLP-DP Alliance, together with DUHR, would reach only 153 mandates, even if they have the support of the national minorities. For the Senate, in the absence of a minoritiesâ group, one of the hypothesis is that, after the validation of the mandates, some GRP (Great Romania Party) or even Alliance Parliament members will be convinced to join the Union SDP+HPR , taking into account that the Union needs two more senators to obtain the majority. The same variant is good for the Deputiesâ Chamber as well, if the Union SDP+HPR and DUHR donât obtain the support of 13 deputies from the minoritiesâ group. These hypotheses are highly improbable in the case of a deal between the J.T. Alliance and DUHR, because they will need a massive migration of Parliament members from the Union SDP+HPR and from GRP.
OPTIONSUntil now, the Union SDP+HPR as well as the J.T. Alliance have excluded an alliance with GRP to form the majority. GRP has much more consistent groups than DUHR in both of the Chambers of the Parliament, with 48 deputies and 28 senators. If one of these two political formations goes for an alliance with GRP it will be much easier for them to have absolute majority. More than that, there is a possibility for GRP to support the future Government only from the Parliament, in order to avoid a negative external reaction. This way, the Union SDP+HPR, together with GRP, would have a comfortable majority with 180 deputies and 78 senators, while the J.T. Alliance would have 160 deputies together with GRP and would need only seven more votes from the minorities. For the Senate, this last formula would have 70 votes, one vote more than the absolute majority. The collaboration between the J.T. Alliance and GRP is the only formula to put the Union SDP+HPR in opposition. On the other hand, a GRP - J.T. Alliance opposition with 160 deputies and 70 senators would be a considerable political force that could block the Parliamentâs works and could easily destroy the Government, only five more votes being needed for a censorship motion. More than that, GRP can decide each law debate with only few Parliament members. The DUHR and the J.T. Alliance in opposition wouldnât mean such a force, this hypothesis being improbable because the Union SDP+HPR would have a minority Government, supported only by GRP, like in the 1992-1996 period.
Translation : SORIN BALAN
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